Nelson Mandela Bay is often overlooked when we analyse the metro municipalities. Before 2011 it was the smallest of six metros, in population, in economic importance and in political significance. It probably suffered a bit from middle-child syndrome after the 2011 local government election (LGE), when Buffalo City and Mangaung joined the metro family.

A cynic might point out that it has as much coalition-shuffling, backroom deals and bribery as Johannesburg or Tshwane, or that its councillors face the same deadly threats as in eThekwini or Buffalo City. In other words, it is plagued by the same shaky, self-serving politicians as in any other large city across the country.Subscribe

The metro has been a bellwether and a useful case study for political analysts. It was one of the first metros to form a coalition government led by the Democratic Alliance (DA) after the 2016 LGE, and it was the first metro where the coalition fell apart. It has been a testing ground for the DA’s coalition-building skills and it has revealed the lengths that the ANC will go to in order to regain power in the metros.

Another trend of some interest is the growth and limitations of smaller parties in the metro like the Northern Alliance (NA), now the National Alliance, and Defenders of the People (DOP). These parties won three and two seats respectively in the 2021 LGE, giving them kingmaker status in the metro, but they ran aground in the 2024 national / provincial election. The NA decided to campaign for the GOOD party while the DOP unsuccessfully challenged its removal from the electoral roll.

Neither party was able to muster the signatures or the money needed to contest elections at a higher level. Whether they return to local politics in the next LGE or are completely absorbed into other parties remains to be seen.

Nelson Mandela Bay is also home to over 40% of the automotive industry’s manufacturers and suppliers. The industry is under incredible pressure and thousands of jobs are under threat. Both the NA and the DOP successfully campaigned in the working-class neighbourhoods that depend on the automotive industry for work. The DOP even launched a new trade union in 2024. Unionisation in the industry is fragmented and has been since the expulsion of the National Union of Metalworkers of South Africa (NUMSA) from COSATU in 2014.

2016 to 2021: messy coalition politics, bribery and four different mayors

Nelson Mandela Bay was not the largest metro lost by the African National Congress (ANC) in the 2016 LGE, but it was the domino most likely to fall first. In the 2011 LGE the ANC had won just 63 of 120 seats, recording the narrowest majority in any metro.

The Democratic Alliance (DA) fell achingly short of a majority in the 2016 LGE. The party won 57 seats to the ANC’s 50 but needed another four seats for a majority in the 120-seat council.

A coalition with Congress of the People (COPE) and the African Christian Democratic Party (ACDP) brought the total to 59 seats. Across the aisle, the ANC, the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF), the African Independent Congress (AIC) and the United Front – Eastern Cape (UFEC) held 58 seats between them.

The United Democratic Movement (UDM) and the Patriotic Alliance (PA) were key to any majority government, as the chart below shows:

The DA formed the first coalition government in the metro on 17 August 2016, with a DA mayor and speaker. The coalition included COPE, the ACDP and the UDM and held a clear majority of 61 seats. When the UDM withdrew its two seats from the coalition and was replaced by the PA’s one seat, both the ANC and DA-led coalitions had 60 seats.

In August 2018 the mayor, Athol Trollip and speaker, Jonathan Lawack lost motions of no confidence by 60 votes to 59. A DA councillor, Victor Manyati abstained from the vote. Manyati was expelled from the party, along with two other DA councillors that the party accused of collapsing the coalition. Manyati, Neville Higgins and Trevor Louw were arrested by the Hawks in September 2022, allegedly for accepting R400 000 in bribes from the ANC regional secretary, Luyolo Nqakula.

The UDM’s Mongameli Bobani was elected mayor, with 61 votes in favour and zero against after the DA and its partners staged a walk-out. Bobani was removed in December 2019 and replaced by Thsonono Buyeye from the AIC, who was subsequently replaced by the DA’s Nqaba Bhanga in December 2020.

2021 to present: more unstable coalitions, political killings and poor governance, another four mayors – and counting

The DA could not repeat its success in the 2021 LGE and slipped to 48 seats, matching the ANC. The EFF were third with eight seats but refused to join coalitions with either party, leaving it to the NA (three seats), the DOP and the PA (both two seats) to play at kingmaking.

In a bizarre echo of the 2018 motions of no confidence, the ANC formed a minority government with 60 votes to 59 after a DA councilor was absent from the vote. This coalition lasted just ten months until September 2022, when the ANC mayor, deputy mayor and chief whip were removed through votes of no confidence.

In hindsight the collapse of the government seemed inevitable. The UDM voiced its unhappiness with the acting city manager, Noxolo Nqwazi as early as January 2022. Nqwazi has been dogged by accusations of corruption and her appointment angered many of the ANC’s coalition partners.

The PA withdrew its support from the coalition a month later and council was unable to pass the 2021/22 adjustment budget. The adjustment budget was finally passed in April after three postponements and the threat of council dissolution. The metro was threatened with administration if it failed to pass the 2022/23 budget by the June 31 deadline.

In June 2022 the UDM, NA, Abantu Integrity Movement (AIM), GOOD and the AIC announced their intention to remove mayor Eugene Johnson from office. The DA-led caucus, including the FF+ and ACDP, held coalition talks with these parties through late June and July. The EFF also indicated it would support the removal of the ANC while choosing to remain outside of any coalition.

In addition to high levels of political instability and intrigue, two ANC ward councillors were assassinated over this period. Zwelandile Booi, councillor for Ward 20 was shot and killed in February 2022 while Andile Andries, councillor for Ward 43 was shot and killed in May. The metro also struggled with severe water shortages.

The DA-led minority government had an even shorter tenure than the first coalition, lasting just eight months from September 2022 to May 2023. Again, the signs of instability and unhappiness were apparent from the start, with several smaller parties complaining of the DA’s handling of coalition agreements.

In November the EFF filed a motion of no confidence against council speaker Gary van Niekerk (NA). The coalition also had to contend with a move by co-operative governance and traditional affairs MEC, Zolile Williams to change the metro’s governing system from a mayoral executive system to a council executive system. Williams had pushed for the change since early 2022 and gazetted it in December.

In February 2023, NA leader (and council speaker) Gary van Niekerk announced that the NA would be leaving the coalition. In May, the ANC / EFF sponsored motion of no confidence against mayor Retief Odendaal was finally voted on in council. Odendaal was removed and replaced by van Niekerk.

van Niekerk lasted as mayor for a surprisingly long time, although his term in office was dogged by controversy, particularly the unauthorised expenditure on legal counsel that he personally underwrote. He even survived an attempt to remove him by his own party, who claimed that he was bringing it into disrepute.

van Niekerk was eventually replaced in October 2024 by the ANC’s Babalwa Lobishe. Lobishe was previously the deputy mayor and she and van Niekerk swapped positions in a highly controversial move. van Niekerk’s time as deputy mayor wasn’t any easier for him, as the calls for his removal grew louder.

Large-scale job losses could lead to even further instability

The closing down of market access to the United States is a big threat to the automotive industry in South Africa and threatens more instability in Nelson Mandela Bay. The map below shows some of the companies located in the metro. The list is by no means exhaustive.

Most of the wards directly affected are ANC wards. The party risks falling further in the metro, and may even lose a few ward seats in the next LGE.

As Nelson Mandela Bay continues to highlight just what can go wrong in local government, residents and those lucky enough to be employed will be praying for some relief from the global trade wars. The DA has stated its aim of winning an historic majority in the metro in the next election. It will be hoping that some of the smaller thorns in its side will fail to make an impact; it is more likely that it or the ANC will have to cobble together a new coalition. Let us hope that this one lasts.